This topic explores the use of logical methods for improving public decision-making. Such methods include "models for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives; techniques of risk analysis and risk assessment; experimental and descriptive studies of decision-making behavior; economic analysis of competitive and strategic decisions; techniques for facilitating decision-making by groups; and computer modeling software and expert systems for decision support."
Topic Learning Outcome: Students will be familiar with the basic components of decision analysis, including risk analysis and economic analysis of strategic decisions.
Core Concepts associated with this Topic: Decision Chain; Decision Point;
Harvard University: API-201 Quantitative Analysis and Empirical Methods
Hammond, John S.; Keeney, Ralph L.; and Raiffa, Howard. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions. Chapters 6-8 and 10.
Stokey, Edith; and Zeckhauser, Richard. A Primer for Policy Analysis. Pages 201-213 and 219-229.
Gonick, Larry; and Smith, Woollcott. 1994. The Cartoon Guide to Statistics. (A nice lay-person’s guide to decision analysis by three prominent leaders in the field.)
Sample Assessment Questions:
1.) We often have to make decisions under uncertainty. In a short one-page paper, describe one technique for approaching a decision about which you have imperfect information (use an example, real or hypothetical).
2.) What is a formal decision model? How can these be helpful in public policy development?
Page created by Sean Goertzen and Ben Eisen on 19 May 2015.